Bulletproof Problem Solving

Good problem definition or framing can have a huge positive impact as we have shown in our examples.

Good problem definition or framing can have a huge positive impact as we have shown in our examples. Problem definition is critical. Take time to thoroughly understand the problem, its context, and the decision-maker's needs. Use a problem statement worksheet to capture key elements: Desired outcome Time frame Decision criteria and constraints Required accuracy Scale of aspirations Be prepared to revise your problem statement as you learn more. Constantly iterate between your evolving understanding and new data or insights. This "porpoising" helps refine the problem and potential solutions. Expand your perspective. Consider relaxing constraints or viewing the problem from different angles to unlock creative solutions. For example, the Avahan HIV project in India made a breakthrough by involving sex workers in developing solutions, rather than just focusing on traditional public health approaches.

Any problem of real consequence is too complicated to solve without breaking it down into logical parts that help us understand the drivers or causes of the situation. Use logic trees. Break down problems into components, factors, or hypotheses. Start with simple component trees and evolve to more sophisticated deductive or inductive logic trees as your understanding deepens. Aim for trees that are: Mutually Exclusive: Branches don't overlap Collectively Exhaustive: All relevant elements are included Apply proven frameworks. For business problems, consider using: Price/Volume analysis Principal/Agent issues Assets/Options evaluation Collaborate/Compete strategies For societal issues, explore frameworks like: Regulate/Incent approaches Equality/Liberty trade-offs Mitigate/Adapt strategies Supply/Demand analysis

Good problem solving is just as much about what you don't do as what you do, and good prioritization in problem solving makes solutions come faster and with less effort. Use the 80/20 rule. Focus on the 20% of factors that drive 80% of the impact. Employ a 2x2 matrix to evaluate potential areas of focus: X-axis: Importance/Impact Y-axis: Ability to influence Prioritize high-impact areas you can meaningfully affect. Be willing to prune off lower-priority branches of your logic tree to maintain focus on the critical path. Conduct knock-out analyses. Quickly eliminate options or areas of inquiry that don't meet minimum thresholds. This prevents wasted effort on unproductive lines of investigation. For example, in a cost-reduction exercise, deprioritize units that can't meaningfully contribute to the overall target.

Tools like Microsoft Project can be extremely helpful in workplanning. But they can also end up being like a beast that needs to be fed, generating enormous detail in workplanning that stretches out in time. Develop hypothesis-driven workplans. For each analysis: State a clear hypothesis Specify the required output (e.g., chart type) Identify data sources Assign responsibility and deadlines Use "chunky workplans" that focus on 2-3 weeks of…