The Art of Uncertainty

Uncertainty is a relationship between someone (perhaps ‘you’) and the outside world, so it depends on the subjective perspective and knowledge of the observer.

Uncertainty is a relationship between someone (perhaps ‘you’) and the outside world, so it depends on the subjective perspective and knowledge of the observer. Subjectivity of Uncertainty. Uncertainty isn't an inherent property of the world, but rather a reflection of our individual knowledge and perspective. What's uncertain to one person may be clear to another, depending on their experiences and information. This personal aspect means that uncertainty is not a fixed state, but a dynamic one that evolves as we learn and adapt. Components of Uncertainty. This relationship comprises a subject (the one experiencing uncertainty), an object (the thing they're uncertain about), a context (the known information), a source (the reason for uncertainty), an expression (how uncertainty is communicated), and an emotional response. Consider a coin flip: your uncertainty about the outcome is different from mine if I've already seen the result. Embracing the Subjective. Recognizing the subjective nature of uncertainty allows us to be more understanding of differing viewpoints and more critical of claims presented as absolute truths. It encourages us to explore the basis of our own uncertainties and to seek out information that can reduce them. This perspective is crucial for navigating the complexities of life, from personal decisions to scientific inquiry.

We demand rigidly defined areas of doubt and uncertainty! Words vs. Numbers. While everyday language uses terms like "likely" or "possible," these are often vague and open to misinterpretation. Putting uncertainty into numbers, expressing it as probabilities, provides a more precise and standardized way to communicate degrees of belief or confidence. This is especially important in fields like intelligence analysis, medicine, and climate science, where clear communication is essential. Scoring Rules and Honesty. Quizzes and scoring rules can help quantify our uncertainty and reveal overconfidence. Proper scoring rules, like the quadratic score, encourage honesty by penalizing exaggerated claims and rewarding accurate assessments. These tools can be used to identify individuals with well-calibrated judgment and to improve decision-making in various contexts. Foxes vs. Hedgehogs. Good forecasters tend to be "foxes," who are skeptical of grand theories and willing to adjust their ideas in light of new evidence, rather than "hedgehogs," who cling to a single overarching view of the world. Good forecasters use multiple sources of information, are open to new knowledge, and are happy to work in teams.

It was not until the Renaissance that any attempt was made to analyse what was going on when dice were thrown, and then, like the release from a pent-up dam, the field exploded into applications in pensions and annuities, astronomy and the law,…