The Data Detective

The Data Detective will make you smarter by showing how you can understand statistics well enough to see how they, and the beliefs and cognitive biases they can make you have, make such a huge impact in your life, for better or for worse, and how to separate fact from fiction.

Statistics fool us when they stir our emotions. Political poll data, for example, might easily make our blood boil. When we are emotional and information doesn’t fit with our existing beliefs, we tend to ignore it. When it does fit in with our narrative, we like to use it as evidence. Even experts aren’t immune to this.

In fact, experts are even less likely to change their beliefs even if they are confronted head-on with a contradiction. It’s easy to see why: They are motivated to avoid conflicting evidence and want to boost their own argument.

So how can we avoid this? First, notice how a statistical claim makes you feel. Are you overjoyed, upset, or in denial? After noting your emotions, stop to think about whether you are straining to come to a particular conclusion. This will help you think more clearly.

However, there are times when personal experience can inform us better than a statistic. When it comes to health outcomes, statistics usually win out, because the broad data shows a more accurate picture than your own experience.

On the other hand, statistics can be skewed in certain settings, like performance reviews. People are more likely to distort or manipulate data when there is money or career opportunities at stake. In this case, judging performance on a case-by-case basis is likely preferable.

In the 2010s, the UK appeared to be experiencing an infant mortality crisis. What’s more, rates of death varied widely depending on where you lived. It turned out the reason for this variation was because the definition of “early death” was different in different regions. Some places considered a baby born at 22 or 23 weeks to be a miscarriage and some considered it a live birth followed by early death. This goes to show how important it is to find what a statistic is actually measuring. Look deeper to understand exactly what or who is being counted, because this can make a world of difference on a statistic. Murky definitions like this make room for people to distort facts, often to support a political perspective. This is why it’s important to investigate what the definitions are in a claim before you can accept or argue against it. For example, a 2018 article in London’s newspapers claimed that London now had a higher murder rate than New York City. Technically, the claim was true. But…