The Signals Are Talking

The future doesn't simply arrive fully formed overnight, but emerges step by step.

The future doesn't simply arrive fully formed overnight, but emerges step by step. Trends emerge gradually. They first appear at seemingly random points around the fringe of society, never in the mainstream. Without context, those points can appear disparate, unrelated, and hard to connect meaningfully. But over time they fit into patterns and come into focus as a full-blown trend: a convergence of multiple points that reveal a direction or tendency, a force that combines some human need and new enabling technology that will shape the future. Misidentifying trends is common. People often mistake trendy innovations for genuine trends. For example, the persistent excitement around flying cars has led to repeated disappointments, while the real trend of autonomous transportation has quietly advanced. Similarly, the "Uber for X" phenomenon saw many startups trying to replicate Uber's success in various industries, missing the broader trend of on-demand services and platform economies. Recognizing true trends requires foresight. Organizations that can see trends early enough to take action have first-mover influence. They can also help to inform and shape the broader context, conversing and collaborating with those in other fields to plan ahead. This ability to forecast and act on trends can be the difference between thriving and becoming obsolete in rapidly changing industries.

When looking for the future, many people begin with traditional market research, which is inherently a look into the past—not to what's ahead. Seek out fringe thinkers. To understand what's plausible and possible beyond the visible horizon, you must seek out and get to know the "unusual suspects," the people who aren't yet winning awards for their work or being featured in "40-Under-40" business lists. These fringe thinkers are often stirring up controversy for their radical new ideas or silently working away, far from the public spotlight. Expand your definition of relevance. When an organization wants to map the future of x, it too often defines x far too narrowly. To identify emerging trends, you must gather information and observations from the fringe, but you must also broaden your definition of x. Consider the intersecting vectors of change across multiple domains: Wealth distribution Education Government Politics Public health Demography Economy Environment Journalism Media Create a fringe sketch. Visualize what's happening on the fringe by creating a map showing nodes (individuals or organizations) and connectors (relationships) impacting x. Plot developments related to x near the center, and those you believe are likely, but only as a result of other developments that must take place first, further away. This visual representation helps identify the unusual suspects and their potential impact on future trends.