The Fourth Turning Is Here

"History is seasonal, and winter is here." The saeculum concept.

"History is seasonal, and winter is here." The saeculum concept. The saeculum, an ancient Etruscan idea, represents a long human life of roughly 80-100 years. This period is divided into four turnings, each lasting about 20-25 years: First Turning (High): A period of strong institutions and social conformity Second Turning (Awakening): An era of spiritual upheaval and rebellion against institutions Third Turning (Unraveling): A time of weakening institutions and strengthening individualism Fourth Turning (Crisis): A decisive period that redefines social and political life Historical patterns. This cycle has repeated throughout Anglo-American history, with notable Fourth Turnings including: The War of the Roses (1455-1487) The Armada Crisis (1569-1597) The Glorious Revolution (1675-1706) The American Revolution (1773-1794) The Civil War (1860-1865) The Great Depression and World War II (1929-1946) Each Fourth Turning has led to a dramatic reshaping of society, often through conflict and upheaval, but ultimately resulting in renewed institutions and a stronger sense of community.

"Each generation belongs to one of four archetypes, heroic, artistic, prophetic, and nomadic." The four archetypes. These recurring generational types play specific roles in the cycle of turnings: Prophets: Born during a High, idealistic and values-driven Nomads: Born during an Awakening, pragmatic and survival-oriented Heroes: Born during an Unraveling, optimistic and team-oriented Artists: Born during a Crisis, adaptive and consensus-building Generational roles in crisis. During a Fourth Turning: Prophet elders provide vision and values Nomads in midlife offer pragmatic leadership Heroes in young adulthood serve as the powerful doers Artists in childhood are the protected and later, the sensitive adults who help rebuild This interplay of generational archetypes drives the dynamics of each turning and shapes the response to crises.

"A Crisis arises in response to sudden threats that previously would have been ignored or deferred, but which are now perceived as dire." Crisis catalysts. The Millennial Crisis began with the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, followed by: Rising political polarization Increasing economic inequality Growing distrust in institutions The COVID-19 pandemic Geopolitical tensions, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine Social mood shift. As the crisis deepens, Americans are experiencing: A growing sense of urgency about national problems Increasing willingness to support strong collective action Rising concern about the future of democracy and national unity The Millennial Crisis is expected to reach its climax around 2030, potentially resulting in a dramatic reshaping of American society and its global role.

"During a Crisis, individuals reattach themselves to their community and turn society outward toward a single and objective goal." Shift in social priorities. Crisis eras bring about significant changes in social dynamics: From individualism to community focus From privilege to greater equality From defiance to respect for authority…