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by Ben Cohen
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In 1985, three psychologists published a paper that seemed to prove something extraordinary: the hot hand in basketball did not exist. Players, coaches, and fans had believed for generations that a shooter who made several shots in a row was more likely to make the next one. The data said otherwise. The paper became one of the most famous findings in the history of psychology, a triumph of scientific rigor over human superstition.
**Author:** Ben Cohen
**Estimated Reading Time:** 45 minutes
**What You'll Learn:** Why humans see streaks everywhere, how the greatest hot hand debate in history unfolded, what better data revealed about success, and how to think clearly about randomness, talent, and opportunity.
**Who This Book Is For:** Anyone who has ever watched a basketball game and felt certain a player was on fire, made an investment decision based on recent performance, or wondered whether success breeds success. This book is for people who want to understand the hidden patterns behind human achievement.
In 1985, three psychologists published a paper that seemed to prove something extraordinary: the hot hand in basketball did not exist. Players, coaches, and fans had believed for generations that a shooter who made several shots in a row was more likely to make the next one. The data said otherwise. The paper became one of the most famous findings in the history of psychology, a triumph of scientific rigor over human superstition. Then, thirty years later, two economists discovered that the original study contained a subtle error. The hot hand might be real after all. This book is about what happened in between, and what that story reveals about how we understand success, randomness, and human performance. Ben Cohen, a sports journalist for The Wall Street Journal, uses the hot hand debate as a lens through which to examine something much larger. The question of whether success breeds success extends far beyond basketball. It touches investing, where traders chase past performance. It touches creative work, where artists wonder if inspiration comes in bursts. It touches the legal system, where judges make decisions that are influenced by what happened in the previous case. It touches every domain where humans try to predict what comes next. The problem is that humans are pattern-seeking creatures. We see shapes in clouds, faces in electrical outlets, and meaning in random sequences. This tendency served our ancestors well. The person who noticed that certain animal tracks appeared before certain dangers survived longer than the person who dismissed the pattern as coincidence. But in the modern world, this same tendency leads us astray. We see streaks that are not there. We invent causes for events that are simply random. We make decisions based on illusions. The hot hand debate matters because it forces us to confront a fundamental question: when we see a pattern, how do we know it is real? The answer turns out to be more complicated than anyone expected. The original hot hand study seemed to settle the question. The researchers analyzed shooting data from the Philadelphia 76ers and found that players were no more likely to make a shot after making…
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Get the complete summary in the appThe hot hand is real, but it is not as strong as people often believe.
The original hot hand study contained a statistical bias that masked a real effect.
The gambler's fallacy is the belief that past events influence future independent outcomes.
Better data can reveal patterns that are invisible to cruder measurements.
Creativity can flourish in difficult circumstances.
Persistence is often the key to success, but persistence includes adaptability.
"The Hot Hand" is a strong fit if you want practical ideas around sports, psychology, science, especially themes like the hot hand is real, but it is not as strong as people often believe; the original hot hand study contained a statistical bias that masked a real effect. The MinuteRead summary distills these concepts into a focused read, whether you're deciding whether to buy the book or applying its lessons at work.
Motivated to help readers with "It may be that the only way you can learn about randomness is to toss coins on the side while you play." The, Ben Cohen wrote “The Hot Hand” to package those ideas for a fast, focused read. In “The Hot Hand”, Ben Cohen focuses on "It may be that the only way you can learn about randomness is to toss coins on the side while you play." The. Through “The Hot Hand”, Ben Cohen distills the core ideas on sports into lessons readers can absorb in a single short sitting. …
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