Criminal (In)Justice

"If you were to randomly drop 10,000 people over the United States, the overwhelming majority of them will land someplace with a murder rate close to zero." Geographic concentration.

"If you were to randomly drop 10,000 people over the United States, the overwhelming majority of them will land someplace with a murder rate close to zero." Geographic concentration. Contrary to popular belief, violent crime in America is highly concentrated in specific areas. About 2% of counties account for 50% of all murders, while over half of counties see no murders in a given year. This concentration extends to urban areas, where a small number of neighborhoods experience disproportionately high crime rates. Demographic concentration. Crime is also concentrated among specific demographic groups. For example, since at least 2008 in New York City, a minimum of 95% of shooting victims have been either Black or Hispanic. This concentration challenges the notion of widespread violence and highlights the need for targeted interventions. 2% of counties = 50% of murders 54% of counties = 0 murders annually 95% of NYC shooting victims = Black or Hispanic

"Contrary to conventional wisdom that American prisons are teeming with petty thieves and nonviolent drug offenders, incarceration in the United States is already largely reserved for serious, violent, prolific offenders." Violent offenders dominate. Over 60% of state prisoners are incarcerated primarily for violent or weapons offenses. Just four violent offense categories – murder, rape/sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated/simple assault – account for more than half of state prisoners. Contrary to popular belief, less than 15% of state prisoners are incarcerated primarily for drug offenses. Repeat offenders. The average state prisoner has between 10 and 12 prior arrests and 5 to 6 prior convictions. This indicates that most incarcerated individuals have had multiple chances before serving prison time. Recidivism rates are high, with 70-77% of released prisoners being rearrested within five years. 60% of state prisoners = violent/weapons offenses 50.5% of state prisoners = murder, rape, robbery, assault <15% of state prisoners = primarily drug offenses Average prisoner = 10-12 prior arrests, 5-6 prior convictions 70-77% recidivism rate within 5 years

"Expanding pretrial release for its own sake inherently raises the risks to the public's safety, just as restricting pretrial release for its own sake raises the risks to the liberty interests of criminal defendants." Cash bail problems. Relying heavily on cash bail can lead to unjust outcomes, where dangerous but wealthy defendants can secure release while harmless but poor defendants remain detained. This highlights the need for reform in pretrial justice systems. Risk assessment tools. A more effective approach involves using validated algorithmic risk assessment tools to inform judicial decisions about pretrial release. These tools consider factors like…